Quantum computing just might save the planet

Quantum computing, a revolutionary technology, holds the potential to reshape our world and possibly, even save the planet. Its immense computational power could unlock solutions to some of the most pressing environmental challenges we face today.

The emerging technology of quantum computing could revolutionize the fight against climate change, transforming the economics of decarbonization and becoming a major factor in limiting global warming to the target temperature of 1.5°C

Experts estimate the first generation of fault-tolerant quantum computing 1 will arrive in the second half of this decade.

• Quantum computing could help reduce emissions in some of the most challenging or emissions-intensive areas, such as agriculture or direct-air capture, and could accelerate improvements in technologies required at great scale.

Cement

During calcination in the kiln for making clinker, a powder used to make cement, CO2 is released from raw materials.

• Alternative cement-binding materials (or “clinkers”) can eliminate these emissions, but there’s currently no mature alternative clinker that can significantly reduce emissions at an affordable cost.

Hydrogen

Improving electrolysis could significantly decrease the cost of hydrogen

• Electrolyzers have delicate membranes that allow the split hydrogen to pass from the anode to the cathode (but keeps the split oxygen out).
• Catalysts and membranes do not yet interact well
• Quantum computing can help model the energy state of pulse electrolysis to optimize catalyst usage
• Increased hydrogen use as a result of these improvements could reduce CO2 emissions by an additional 1.1 gigatons by 2035

Shift 5: Reforming food and forestry

Twenty percent of annual greenhouse-gas emissions come from agriculture-and methane emitted by cattle and dairy is the primary contributor (7.9 gigatons of CO2e, based on 20-year global-warming potential).

• Research has established that low-methane feed additives could effectively stop up to 90 percent of methane emissions, but applying those additives to free-range livestock is difficult.
• An alternative solution is an antimethane vaccine that produces methanogen-targeting antibodies, but in a cow’s gut-churning with gastric juices and food-the antibodies struggle to latch on to the right microbes.

Solving so far insoluble problems

Quantum computing could bring about step changes throughout the economy that would have a huge impact on carbon abatement and carbon removal

• Addressing the five areas designated in the Climate Math Report as key for decarbonization
• McKinsey project that by 2035 the use cases listed below could make it possible to eliminate more than 7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from the atmosphere a year, compared with the current trajectory

Additional use cases

There are many more ways that quantum computing could be applied to the fight against climate change. Future possibilities include identification of new thermal-storage materials, high-temperature superconductors as a future base for lower losses in grids, or simulations to support nuclear fusion.

Batteries

Improving the energy density of lithium-ion batteries enables applications in electric vehicles and energy storage at an affordable cost

• Quantum computing could allow breakthroughs by providing a better understanding of electrolyte complex formation, by helping to find a replacement material for cathode/anode with the same properties, and/or by eliminating the battery separator
• Higher-density energy batteries can serve as a grid-scale storage solution

Direct-air capture

Sucking CO2 from the air

• Very expensive and energy intensive
• Novel approaches such as metal organic frameworks, or MOFs, have the potential to greatly reduce the energy requirements and capital cost of the infrastructure
• Could reduce the cost of technology to $100 per ton of CO2e captured

The leap in CO2 abatement could be a major opportunity for corporates

With $3 to $5 trillion in value at stake in sustainability, according to McKinsey research, climate investment is an imperative for big companies.

• Governments have an important role to play by creating programs at universities to develop quantum talent and by providing incentives for quantum innovation for climate, particularly for use cases that today do not have natural corporate partners, such as disaster prediction or that aren’t economical.

About the Author(s)

Peter Cooper is an associate partner in McKinsey’s London office, where Dieter Kiewell is a senior partner, Philipp Ernst is senior expert in the Hamburg office, and Dickon Pinner is senior partner in the Bay Area office.

Solar cells

Currently, solar cells rely on crystalline silicon and have an efficiency on the order of 20 percent

• Perovskite crystal structures, which have a theoretical efficiency of up to 40 percent, could be a better alternative
• They present challenges, however, because they lack long-term stability and could, in some varieties, be more toxic
• Quantum computing could help solve these challenges by allowing for precise simulation
• If the theoretical efficiency increase can be reached, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) would decrease by 50 percent

Ammonia

Best known as a fertilizer, it could also be used as fuel

• Currently, ammonia is made through the energy-intensive Haber ***** process using natural gas
• Other potential approaches
• Nitrogenase bioelectrocatalysis
• This method is attractive because it can be done at room temperature and at 1 bar pressure
• Quantum computing can help simulate the process of enhancing the stability of the enzyme, protecting it from oxygen and improving the rate of ammonia production by nitrogenase

Point-source capture

CO2 can be captured directly from industrial sources such as a cement or steel blast furnace

• The vast majority of CO2 capture is too expensive to be viable for now
• One possible solution: novel solvents
• Quantum computing promises to enable more accurate modeling of molecular structure
• Could reduce the cost of the process by 30 to 50 percent
• Potential to decarbonize industrial processes

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