Sebastian Mallaby, a renowned author and expert on finance and economics, discusses the intricacies of venture capital, its role in the tech revolution, and its future prospects in a conversation with Tyler Cowen.
Mallaby’s insights provide a deep understanding of the unique skills required in the venture capital sector, the potential impact of a consumer retail tech boom, and the future of venture capital in light of changes in investment rules.
The Promising Future of Venture Capital
The future of venture capital, in light of changes in investment rules that allow for longer-term investments, is promising.
The unique feature of venture capital is its focus on early-stage ventures.
Investing in companies with a market cap of more than about $500 million is a different thing, referred to as growth equity.
The Unique Skillset of Venture Capitalists
Venture capitalists need to combine technical knowledge, business acumen, networking skills, and high energy to be successful.
The ability to replicate these skills is limited, which is why the high returns persist.
However, the recent boom in the sector may have attracted enough talent to eventually compete away the returns.
Jerome Powell’s Upcoming Test
Jerome Powell, the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is about to face a significant test as he tightens rates.
The stimulus provided by the Fed helped to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis.
However, this may have led to an overshoot in stimulus, which could potentially lead to a recession.
The money may be limitless but the skills and the connections in Silicon Valley and what have you, that is not unlimited. And so skill can continue to generate good returns. – Sebastian Mallaby
The Mobility of Venture Capital
Venture capital is mobile and is spreading to other regions outside of Silicon Valley.
Well-known American VC firms have recently set up offices in London, predicting that Europe’s tech ecosystem will grow faster than the U.S.’s in the next decade.
Efficient Market Theory and Venture Capital
Venture capital’s high returns challenge the efficient market theory.
The persistence of these returns is attributed to the unique skills and connections required in the sector, which are not unlimited.
Therefore, even with more capital flowing in, the returns may not necessarily decrease.
Beyond the Tech Boom: Venture Capital’s Impact
The potential impact of a consumer retail tech boom on venture capital returns is significant.
The increasing importance of intangible capital in the economy means that hands-on, expert investing will continue to be valuable, even after the tech boom is over.
The Significant Impact of Venture Capital
Despite its small size relative to total capital flows, venture capital has a significant impact.
Statistics show that while fewer than 1% of new companies receive venture capital backing, half of all companies that go public got venture backing, and three quarters of the market cap from those companies derived from venture-backed companies.
The Underrated Venture Scene in Europe
Europe, specifically South England, might be the most underrated venture scene.
The success of companies like Graphcore, a semiconductor design company based in Bristol, South England, is one of the reasons why American VC firms decided to open an office in London.
The Spotify Halo Effect
The success of Spotify will lead to the emergence of new startups and venture capitalists in Sweden, particularly Stockholm.
This is similar to how Microsoft and Amazon have influenced Seattle’s tech scene.
Understanding the Risks in Venture Capital
Venture capital involves franchise risk, as it often involves investing in early-stage companies that may not succeed.
However, the potential for high returns can make venture capital an attractive investment option for those with the necessary skills and connections.
Just because it’s small doesn’t mean it has low impact… fewer than one percent of companies that get formed every year receive venture capital backing but if you look at the year since 1995, half of all the companies that go public got venture backing and three quarters of the market cap from those companies derived from venture-backed companies. – Sebastian Mallaby
The Bailout of Long-Term Capital Management
The bailout of long-term capital management in the late ’90s was a significant event.
The Fed’s decision to bail out Continental Illinois in 1986 set a precedent for future bailouts.
However, hedge funds were not the main drivers of the 2008 crisis, as they had learned their lessons from the LTCM incident.
Venture Capital’s Role Across Sectors
Venture capital is not limited to rapidly scalable projects, such as software.
It has historically been involved in hardware projects as well, and could still work in capital-intensive, regulation-intensive sectors like biotech, given the potential for innovation in these areas.
