Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed. Before you hit the snooze button and let your cortisol levels fall, you need to get to the bottom of this career-disrupting phenomenon – or you’ll be doomed to repeat it
The Planning Fallacy
Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed
- Research shows that we often underestimate the time and obstacles involved in completing a task even when it directly contradicts our past experiences
- This can be explained by our optimism bias
- We all try to take actions that will lead to probabilistically improved outcomes in the future, and that both motivates us today and makes us feel better
- The planning fallacy leads to you having to cram in the end and do way more than you’d anticipated
Commit early and publicly
The more specific you are about when, where, and what you aim to do – and the more plans you set in place to boost your willpower – the more likely you are to follow through.
- Set “if-then” plans: if [specific situation occurs], THEN I will [take this action].
Schedule “buffer time.”
Take your original estimate and increase it by 25% to ensure a more realistic deadline
- Set aside an extra week to allow for delays
- Tech tools can help you stick to this practice
- Block out hours to do focused work on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
- Consider setting up weekly check-ins with external stakeholders or teammates
Overcoming the Planning Fallacy
Even those who have studied the planning fallacy are susceptible to it
- So, what can we do along the way to keep us on target and help us meet our goals
- The researchers have a few suggestions
- E.g. Try and avoid overworking or over-working yourself
Assume the worst
For your next important task, start by assuming its demise
- This strategy involves imagining your own failure or determining what will go wrong before it actually does
- By doing so, you’ll be better able to foresee potential (if unlikely) issues
- You’ll also be equipped to develop a suitable backup plan as a preventative measure
Take the outside view
Daniel Kahneman calls this “a cure” for the planning fallacy
- The outside view is grounded in objectivity, data, and statistics
- How much time and effort have similar tasks required in the past?
- Does your work mirror that of another firm?
