Imagine a future where Bitcoin reigns supreme. Will it be a utopia of decentralization, or a dystopia of unregulated chaos? Let's embark on a speculative journey into the next two decades of Bitcoin's potential evolution.
Blockchain is Just the Beginning of Decentralized Consensus
Over the next twenty years, I predict dozens, if not hundreds, of experimental distributed consensus protocols, capable of transaction levels that blow away Visa level processing, augmented by artificial intelligence systems.
- None of these systems will be designed by humans. Instead, AI’s will rapidly iterate on ideas and come up with systems that no human ever could.
Decentralized Cryptocurrencies Will Become a Parallel Economic Operating System for the Planet
Just because centralized cryptos rise to prominence doesn’t mean the decentralized cryptos will go away.
- Governments will still try to stamp out decentralized crypto, but they will fail. The same factors that make it hard to form consensus across a blockchain make it tough for all the world’s governments to agree on anything.
The Killer App for Crypto is NOT a Browser
Ubiquitous
- Easy to use
- Open source
- Something totally new and original that expands and extends the best characteristics of the blockchain while minimizing its greatest weaknesses
- Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter?
The Blockchain Will Enable All Kinds of Evil
Crypto enthusiasts will have to come to terms with the fact that the blockchain can and will enable as much evil as it does good
- If you are not imagining all the ways a hostile group will use the power of blockchain, one that doesn’t share your views on openness and freedom and collaboration, then you are just naive
- An open system will not always prevent abuses
The Gig Economy Will Grow Big Time
The machines will know your capabilities and skill sets and match short term gigs to you so you don’t even have to look for a job
- Much of this will be governed by Externalized Reputation Banks powered by blockchains that will be the social credit of tomorrow
- This will be both good and very, very evil
Crypto Will Get Easier to Use
User experience in crypto is awful. The core wallets are slow, hard to use, and ugly.
- There is no way to reverse any transaction or to secure it against mistakes.
- Algorithmic methods to freeze, roll back and protect transactions, as well as ways to self-escrow money and recover stolen money are needed.
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This Internet Thing will Never Work Out
The primordial lizard brain runs a mental heuristic that’s absolutely incapable of understanding anything new and novel.
- Unfortunately, many people live almost their entire lives at this level and their opinions are worth zero when it comes to seeing new trends and developments.
- To see the future you have to be able to step outside of yourself, forget your past successes and see beyond your current understanding.
The Bubble Burst
People in and out of crypto see them as bubble that will pop, causing prices to crash badly
- 90% of tokens will fail
- After the pop comes the real working ideas
- 10% of projects that make it through the bloodbath will turn into the Amazon, Google, and Facebook of tomorrow
- The bubble burst is just the next step
Prediction is a tricky business. Few people can do it well. Here’s an attempt to project out twenty years to see the evolution of Bitcoin, blockchain, alternative cryptocurrencies and decentralization.
We can never predict the future completely, but we can do a kind of Monte Carlo analysis of tomorrow and see the major pathways spinning out into infinity.
Bitcoin Has a 50/50 Shot At Surviving
Bitcoin has first mover advantage
- It’s the absolute first of its kind and still dominates the global market share but it also suffers from a number of major flaws that could kill it.
- Only a few ways to change it exist
- Submitting a proposal where almost everyone agrees
- Starting a new project and hard fork it
- Upgrades and responses to attacks by well-funded hostile forces will need to move fast and percolate throughout the network in hours or days, not years.
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The protocols of Coins will Get Abstracted from the Coins Themselves
We should be able to move the coin as fast and as far and as often as we like.
- One way to do that is to abstract all the protocols and run all the older coins as something equivalent to virtual machines or containers. Then the rules are separate from the coins themselves.
Four Dominant Meta Coins, Plus Fifty to One Hundred Minor Coins, and Infinite Virtual Variations of These Coins, plus State Coins
Deflationary Saver coin
- Inflationary Spender Coin
- Action Token Reward Token
- Every other coin could simply act as a subcomponent of those four coins with different metadata
Government Cryptocurrencies will Flourish
Many governments will not sit by and lose control of the money supply without a vicious fight.
- People will adopt government cryptos like good little sheep without a second thought. People will go along with whatever their leaders tell them to do without question, whether it’s a democracy or fascist dictatorship.
The Rise of Bitcoin, Crypto and Decentralization
A few easy predictions followed by some more complex and far reaching ones.
We’ll Learn We Didn’t Know Crap About Economics
All of our economic theories are based on studies conducted with limited data in the analog age of ink and wood pulp
- With blockchain we’ll have real-time economic data on a global scale
- Artificial intelligence will track global production and manufacturing with unbelievable precision
A DAO Will Grow to Fortune 500 Status
The most likely DAO to reach this milestone will be a DAO that mirrors an open version of Visa
- It will likely take cuts from the transactions and miners on the most dominant network and it will help fund the future development and governance of that network
- Governance is everything in DAO governance
- There are no scalable models yet to manage a company the size of a major corporation today as an open source meritocratic workplace
The Final Frontier
Cryptocurrencies represent a fundamental upgrade to the economic systems of the world. Once they’re fully booted up and integrated into the global and interplanetary networks of the future, the world will look very, very different in ways we can only begin to understand.
- Cyrptocurrencies, decentralized apps and DAOs even hold the possibility of bootstrapping us into Star Trek like post-scarcity economies.
